It’s Opening Day!

“You! You there!” he shouted to a boy on the street. “What day is this?” The boy gave Scrooge a puzzled look. “It’s Opening Day, sir! Opening Day morning!”

The Countdown Commences

Opening Day, a time for amateur poets to make some sort of springtime rebirth metaphor. Yep, every team starts at 0-0, and so on. The reality of how different teams choose to operate creates a stark dichotomy. There are several teams that are not even bothering to try, your mileage may vary when it comes to calling it rebuilding or tanking. What that means, however, is that the good teams are really good. Last season did give us 4 teams that lost more than 100 games, but there were also 4 that won more than 100 with a fifth that tallied 99. It’s no comfort for the fans that have to suffer through a miserable year, but great teams are good for the game.

It also bears repeating that we are entering into what promises to be an exciting new era for the game. No more interminable pauses as the hitter readjusts his batting gloves! A second baseman actually playing second base! Sweet! In a recent column Jayson Stark pointed out another change resulting from the new pace of play rules. The pitch clock also affects managerial challenges; they need to more immediately decide if they wish to use a challenge. Ideally that will mean it will be more likely to be used as intended; to overturn an egregiously wrong call instead of asking a replay official to examine camera angles Zapruder-like to see if a sliding runner loses contact with the base for a millisecond.

So, let’s look into the crystal ball and try to predict how the year is gonna go. I won’t hazard a guess as to who will win the World Series. Is my #1 choice who I believe is most likely to hoist the trophy? Sure, but the postseason is such a crapshoot with short series and the small sample sizes that result. Luckily enough, nothing on the internet is forever so if I miss badly on my predictions there’s no way anyone can remind me of how wrong I was. Let us proceed!

#30 - Colorado Rockies. It’s striking to see how punchless this offense is; the days of the Blake Street Bombers are a long distant memory. A healthy productive season from Kris Bryant would be a big boost, but even a return to form would leave a lineup filled with below average hitters.

#29 - Oakland Athletics. After gutting the roster of almost every familiar name, Oakland has far and away the most anonymous team in the league, bringing back memories of the Wayne Gross era. The team will spend the bulk of their time losing and checking out the real estate listings in Las Vegas.

#28 - Washington Nationals. I get it, flags fly forever and the fans will always have their memories of 2019. But oof, this team has fallen so far, so fast. If the 2023 version of Patrick Corbin is your opening day starter that does not bode well. Maybe Joey Meneses is the real thing?

#27 - Detroit Tigers. It looks like Miguel Cabrera’s farewell tour is the only thing to look forward to this year. With 2 #1 overall draft picks in the organization, I’m sure they believed the rebuild would have been quicker, but the prospects have yet to show that they’re major league ready. This franchise is stuck in quicksand.

#26 - Cincinnati Reds. Team ownership proudly raises the Refusal To Spend flag, and the results speak for themselves. Even if everything goes right, such as Hunter Greene making the leap, or Jonathan India staging a comeback, this team offers little to get excited about. Here’s hoping that once Joey Votto returns he can provide some good memories in the final year of his contract.

#25 - Pittsburgh Pirates. When bad teams happen to beautiful ballparks. This could be an interesting team to watch if Oneil Cruz puts it all together this year, but overall this club will be similar to most Pirates teams of recent vintage. Lots of middling players and all the excitement of an adult contemporary radio station.

#24 - Kansas City Royals. Looking at both ends of the age spectrum, may Zack Greinke pitch forever, and may Bobby Witt Jr. take a big step forward in his development. I could see a few things breaking the right way and KC making a surprising run at .500 particularly if MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino have big years but the pitching staff is too underwhelming to expect much.

#23 - Chicago Cubs. After going more than a century between championships, the Cubs appear to be taking an equally plodding pace towards their next great team. They’re a classic not quite a contender team. If this goes right and if that goes right, yadda yadda, but it’s implausible to expect so many if’s turning in the right direction. Should fans count on a Cody Bellinger comeback, or a big year from Seiya Suzuki? Dansby Swanson can only do so much.

#22 - Baltimore Orioles. It’s one thing to stick to a planned schedule, it’s another thing to remain on autopilot. The O’s surprised last year, but they appear to be in no rush to accelerate their timetable. Adley Rutschman is the real thing, Cedric Mullins is a budding star, and Gunnar Henderson is one of the game’s most promising prospects. But they did little to improve the pitching, particularly the rotation. They’re in an unforgiving division and seem poised to take a step backwards.

#21 - Miami Marlins. Points are automatically deducted for removing the home run sculpture. Imagine the World Baseball Classic with that in the outfield? The franchise continues to follow the standard Marlins playbook. Sandy Alcantara is one of the game’s best pitchers, Jazz Chisholm is an exciting talent when healthy, and it’s just a question of when their young stars will get traded away. There’s little evidence that ownership is willing to make the long term commitment to compete with the division’s big three.

#20 - San Francisco Giants. Give them credit, at least they tried. 2 years removed from a surprise 107 win season, they recognized that a roster filled with aging Brandons can only go so far. They were in on Aaron Judge until the very end, and of course they thought they had Carlos Correa at one point. Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger could prove useful and they are now down one Brandon with Mr. Belt’s departure, but this screams average team.

#19 - Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin Carroll is one of the most exciting prospects in the game and with the likes of Ketel Marte and Christian Walker they have the makings of a solid offense. Outside of Zac Gallen, however, the pitching staff is somewhat underwhelming. This is clearly a franchise on the right track, but they’re not quite there yet.

#18 - Texas Rangers. There may be no bigger variable in the sport than Jacob deGrom. When healthy he is arguably the premier pitcher in the game, but the disclaimer “when healthy” is doing a lot of work. When they have been good the Rangers have traditionally had a powerful offense offset by subpar pitching. If deGrom can somehow make 28-30 starts, this team can be much better than anticipated. If so, look out. A quartet of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Nathaniel Lowe is gonna produce a lot of runs.

#17 - Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim. Will the Ohtani/Trout matchup in the WBC be the team’s season highlight? Will this club inspire another year of Tungsten Arm O’Doyle jokes? The Angels appear to have done a better job of filling out the roster so that’s it not as top heavy as they usually are, but they desperately need a return to form from Anthony Rendon. Otherwise “what club will Shohei Ohtani play for next year?” season will start early.

#16 - Chicago White Sox. This team took some major steps backward the last two seasons. I suppose this year we’ll learn what was the bigger issue - Tony La Russa or injuries that held back the young stars. There is a terrific foundation with Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Dylan Cease among others. Big comebacks from Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal would be very helpful. The AL Central is arguably the weakest division so it’s there for the taking if the pieces fall into place.

#15 - Milwaukee Brewers. For some reason the Brewers thought it was a good idea to take Corbin Burnes to arbitration over the relatively small difference of $700K. They won the case, but it was apparently an ugly hearing which caused hard feelings between the two sides. So enjoy the services of one of the few men who can realistically consider himself the best pitcher in the game while you can. Now that’s a Pyrrhic victory. Brandon Woodruff is an ideal #2 starter, but the offense still has a lot of work to do. With each season it becomes less unlikely that Christian Yelich will return to being a feared hitter.

#14 - Seattle Mariners. I’m probably underestimating their chances. Julio Rodriguez is already a star, Luis Castillo is a stud, Eugenio Suarez is a premiere power hitter, and Teoscar Hernandez was an excellent pickup. I still find something missing with this team. If Robbie Ray has a comeback, or if Jarred Kelenic reaches his promise, then the M’s probably do take that next big step and make me look silly. But they haven’t sold me yet.

#13 - St. Louis Cardinals. The lineup is anchored by 2 MVP candidates in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, they have a promising rookie in Jordan Walker, and of course there is the wonder that is Lars Nootbar. That’s more than enough to take their division, but they’re a pitcher or two short of reaching the league’s upper echelon.

#12 - Minnesota Twins. They were able to bring back Carlos Correa with no drama attached, but the key off-season acquisition should be Pablo Lopez. For years this team has stubbornly avoided pitchers with strikeout ability, so Lopez should be a welcome change. There’s the annual hope that Byron Buxton can have a fully healthy season to show what he could do. If so, the Twins could seriously threaten Cleveland for the division title.

#11 - Boston Red Sox. I’m going out on a big limb here, especially since they lost Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story will miss a huge chunk of the season. But this team has ridden a roller coaster over the past several years which means they may be due for an upswing. A lot needs to go right for this to happen. Chris Sale needs to finally have a healthy season. Justin Turner needs to have one more big year in him. Masataka Yoshida needs to make an immediate splash. I’m taking a big swing here, but I think they’ve got a good shot at surprising.

#10 - Cleveland Guardians. They’re putting together a nice little team over there & the emergence of Steven Kwan and possibly Oscar Gonzalez may mean they’ll actually have a productive outfield for once. They are starting to sign some of their young stars to long term deals and with perennial MVP contender Jose Ramirez in the fold, this team could have a solid run of success. The absence of Triston McKenzie for as long as two months will hurt, but I like their future.

#9 - Philadelphia Phillies. They added Trea Turner to a pennant winning team, but I still worry about their issues with the team defense and the bullpen, unless you believe that Craig Kimbrel has one more rejuvenation left in him. The Nola/Wheeler 1-2 is one of the best in the game, but there is a noticeable drop off after their turn in the rotation. In that tight division any major injury can be costly, so the loss of Rhys Hoskins is huge. All signs indicate that Bryce Harper’s recovery is running ahead of schedule; the team desperately needs to remain in contact with Atlanta and New York until he returns.

#8 - Houston Astros - This isn’t a drop off as much as I believe many of the other major contenders improved themselves more. Jose Abreu appears to be an upgrade at first base, but he’s hitting that age where a sudden decline is possible. If Jeremy Peña continues to improve it’s possible his production can make up for the early absence of Jose Altuve. Their ultimate success depends upon how much the young starters step up to make up for Justin Verlander’s departure. The key for me is Cristian Javier; he seems to have the most room to grow from that group.

#7 - Toronto Blue Jays. This team is brimming with young stars, from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Alek Manoah to Bo Bichette to Alejandro Kirk. They’re all still on the upswing so there is absolutely plenty of room to improve. The Dalton Varsho acquisition is a stealthily significant move. Add George Springer and Matt Chapman to the mix and you’ve got a seemingly ideal blend of youth, veterans, power and defense. They probably need one more starting pitcher; keep an eye on them at the trade deadline.

#6 - Los Angeles Dodgers. Any club with Mookie Betts & Freddie Freeman in the lineup and Julio Urias on the mound is a force to be reckoned with, but I’m not sure what they were doing this offseason. Trea Turner is an obvious huge loss, but Justin Turner was just as significant of a departure. I don’t know why they let Tyler Anderson get away either, especially knowing that Walker Buehler will almost certainly miss the season. They’re asking a lot from Noah Syndergaard; his command looks to be back but not his velocity. Clayton Kershaw is still great, but at this stage 25 starts is probably the most they can expect out of him. There’s plenty of talent in that clubhouse, but they seem to be satisfied with taking a slight step back this year.

#5 - New York Mets. The Edwin Diaz injury is devastating, no sense underestimating that loss. It’s important to keep in mind that this is a team that won 101 games last season, this is still a good club and even though there is legitimate concern over the ages of the starting pitchers there is every reason to believe their success is sustainable. And Steve Cohen is not shy when it comes to writing big checks. The Lindor/Alonso/Nimmo/McNeil core is strong and the rotation is led by two historic greats in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Another 100 win season might be tough, but it should still be another memorable year in Queens.

#4 - Tampa Bay Rays. The franchise motto oughta be “ignore them at your own peril.” No matter what types of moves they make or don’t they seemingly always find a way to get things done. Because he was hurt for a good chunk of last year a lot of people seem to have forgotten just how good Wander Franco is, and I fully expect Randy Arozarena to build on his momentum from the WBC. They should be even better with full comebacks from Tyler Glasnow and Brandon Lowe.

#3 - Atlanta Braves. As their two chief division rivals open up the Brinks truck, the Braves have been able to lock up their young stars to long term team friendly contracts. This team is going to be very good for a very long time. They took a bit of a hit with the loss of Dansby Swanson, but keep in mind that in his first year back from a knee injury Ronald Acuna Jr. was good, but not great. If he is fully back this year the sky’s the limit. He’s already talking about a potential 40-40 season. Sean Murphy was an outstanding pickup, and Michael Harris II can only get better. I haven’t even mentioned Austin Riley or the stable of outstanding young pitchers. This team is stacked.

#2 - New York Yankees. Only the Yankees could win 99 games, earn a division title, and make it to the LCS yet still have fans and sports talk hosts ready to gather torches and pitchforks so that they can run Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman out of town. Now, is there something about the roster construction with so many high strikeout hitters that makes them susceptible to slumping in the postseason? Perhaps. For all of their runscoring capability there are noticeable holes in the lineup. Also, as great as Aaron Judge is it’s realistic to expect him to slump to “only” 45 homers or so, so his lineup mates will need to step up and fill in that gap. The rotation could potentially be the best in the game, but the injuries they’re already facing are troubling. But there’s no need to sound an alarm, the team is deep enough that they will be big players at the trade deadline if/when they need to plug holes.

#1 - San Diego Padres. What a welcome change for this franchise. After years in which many casual fans would have been hard pressed to name 5 players on the roster, this team is overflowing with major stars. Juan Soto has already set such a high bar for himself that a year with a .400 on base percentage seemed disappointing. Manny Machado promises to be in the MVP mix for years to come. Xander Bogaerts is one of the game’s top stars. After a massive mid season slump, Josh Hader appeared to have turned things around at the end of the year and figures to be ready for another dominant year. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell anchor a strong rotation. And there may not be a player in the game with more to prove than Fernando Tatis Jr. With the Dodgers taking a step back this season the time is perfect for the Pads to seize the opportunity and lead their division.

So, to summarize:

AL Division Winners: Yankees, Guardians, Astros

AL Wild Cards: Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox

NL Division Winners: Braves, Cardinals, Padres

NL Wild Cards: Mets, Dodgers, Phillies

I see that this means 11 of the 12 playoff teams are duplicates from last year. Not ideal, seems lame, but that’s how things shook out for me.

League & WS Champs: Embrace the chaos. The best team doesn’t always win, so why should this year be any different? If you go by the above rankings, the Padres should finally get their 1998 revenge and defeat the Yankees, but strange things always happen in the playoffs. Sit back and enjoy your popcorn.

Play Ball

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