Fearless Prediction Time
Who Will Get The Call?
Fan voting for the Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame ends on Friday, which means that the announcement of this year’s induction class is likely to come as early as next week. With the caveat that electorate of well over a thousand voters makes predictions a challenge, I’ll take into account voting patterns from previous elections and make my best guesses. As I’ve previously mentioned, this is a loaded ballot; a strong argument can be made for each nominee. As a result whatever the results it will be an impressive induction class, but on the other hand there will be inevitable disappointment. “Aw schucks, why couldn’t ____ get in?”
The past several voting cycles have seen either 6 or 7 inductees, so I’ll work with the understanding that it will be the case this year as well. There are 5 likely inductees that immediately stand out for me, one of whom I will say is as close to a 100% certainty as I can imagine. Willie Nelson is an American institution, everyone loves him, and he’s about to turn 90. He’s getting in. I wouldn’t write down these next 4 in indelible ink, but I do like their chances. I think there’s still enough lingering momentum from last summer’s Kate Bush renaissance to get her in. I think that Sheryl Crow has so much admiration among industry figures and fellow artists that she should have enough support. And I think that an artist making it to the final ballot in their first year of eligibility demonstrates a tremendous amount of respect, which bodes well for Missy Elliott and The White Stripes.
That’s 5, what about 2 more? There is only one classic R&B act on the ballot; does that open up a lane for The Spinners? Will the Joy Division/New Order ballot combo draw enough support from fans of either to put them over the top? The voting block is still dominated by boomers. So far that generation has not shown much enthusiasm for supporting more than one hip-hop act per year. Does that mean A Tribe Called Quest will need to wait at least another year? And speaking of genres that voters have not supported much; Iron Maiden, Rage Against the Machine, and Soundgarden all fall into a general hard rock grouping. Will these 3 split votes, keeping all of them out?
Finally, there is one category of artists who have been elected with strong reliability. Often an act that has been eligible for more than a decade without a nomination suddenly appears on the ballot. These types of acts often get elected. The most likely reason for that is the Older Voter A has long wanted to cast a ballot for Veteran Act B, but couldn’t. Then, once the veteran finally hits the ballot the voter seizes the opportunity to do so. In addition to Willie, Cyndi Lauper, George Michael, and Warren Zevon all fall under this umbrella.
It’s also worth taking the fan vote into account. The importance of that vote is overstated. The results of that poll are consolidated into one ballot. One does not need to be a math whiz to recognize that one vote among the thousand+ has no statistical significance. Additionally, so much emphasis is placed on who wins the fan vote, but it’s not a weighted ballot. The 5th place finisher in the fan ballot is just as important as the winner. With that out of the way, is it possible that voters look at the fan results whilst putting their own ballots together? In other words, if Voter A is having trouble narrowing it down does he or she decide to reward a fan favorite? Perhaps. Do enough voters take that tactic to make a difference? Less likely, but possible. For the record, George Michael has been leading the fan vote and has an insurmountable lead.
My Spidey Sense tells me that Joy Division/New Order will make it; I have seen a stronger tendency in recent years to elect artists that have established stronger footprints in the UK than they did in the States. If so, they’ll take the slot I had reserved for Sheryl Crow. So, here are my predictions for this year’s class:
Kate Bush
Missy Elliott
Joy Division/New Order
Cyndi Lauper
George Michael
Willie Nelson
The White Stripes
I won’t hazard a guess as to who the honorees in the side categories will be. I spent weeks bringing up more than a couple dozen potential candidates. I suspect most if not all of the honorees will come from that group but you can always count on the Hall to throw a curveball or two. Of course, the hope is that the Hall will use the side categories to address the unacceptable gender inequity. I’ll obviously Have Thoughts once the official announcement is made.
James Corden
After 8 years, James Corden’s run in the Late Late Show comes to a close this week. There’s been a lot of piling on the guy as his, shall we say unpleasantness has been made public, so I won’t add to much to that. I’ll begrudgingly give him credit for putting Reggie Watts on network TV every weeknight. That’s gotta count for something. Overall, he is clearly the weakest of the current late night hosts, but he did do some things that are worth noting.
The late night formula has been established for ages. An hour long show consists of 6 segments. Segment 1 is the monologue/banter with sidekick. Segment 2 is a comedy bit. The “A” guest takes over segments 3 & 4, with the “B” guest in segment 5. Segment 6 is either a musical performance or a set from a standup comic; neither of whom generally gets a chance to sit on the couch for an interview.
Each host makes his own tweaks to the formula, and I kind of liked Corden’s specific one. He would bring out all of his guests at once and have them sit on the couch simultaneously. As a result, there was more actual conversation and less project plugging. As for his bits, Carpool Karaoke was a fun, albeit overused, concept. It gave singers a chance to let their hair down a bit and generally goof around. I don’t feel the same about the bit in which he and a repertory troop would perform musicals at traffic lights. That would be amusing for the first thirty seconds and then tire out quickly. I can only imagine how fiercely I would be gritting my teeth if I was stuck at a traffic light and had to suffer through that. And his interviewing style left a lot to be desired. When it would be time for guests to promote their projects he would insist on referring to everything as “brilliant.” Damn, he overused that word.
I can’t say that I’ll miss him, and I remain torn over the fact that @Midnight is going to take over the time slot. On one hand, 5 late night network talk shows is more than enough, but on the other hand it’s a shame that we’re losing a nightly showcase for musical acts that aren’t quite big enough to play the 11:30 shows, especially since Seth Meyers, to his credit, generally uses his final segment to interview authors.
Tucker and Lemon
I sure wasn’t expecting this. It was likely that a head or two would roll at Fox following the Dominion settlement, but the network cutting ties with Tucker Carlson was still a major shock. Drips and drabs of info have come out so far, so I imagine we’ll eventually learn more about the true reason why this happened. How much of it was due to the comments he made in deposition, how much was due to the misogynistic frat house he apparently ran, and is it possible that his on-air rhetoric finally went too far?
Despite the concern that his eventual replacement may turn out to be even worse, this was still a good day. Spewing an hour’s worth of white supremacy to such a huge audience has been tremendously destructive; it will take quite a long time to repair the damage he has done. It will be fascinating to analyze the immediate ramifications for both Fox & Carlson. How much of his success was due to his ability to exploit the MAGA mentality, or how much of it was due to the fact that he was on at 8PM and had a built-in audience for that time slot? Will Racist Grandpa seek out Carlson at whichever platform he winds up on, or will he keep his cable box tuned to his regular channel and find comfort with whichever talking head is airing grievances and resentments? It’s not as if Bill O’Reilly maintained his old audience levels once he was kicked to the curb. This bears watching.
It was also a bad day for Don Lemon. This one was no surprise at all. After his ill-formed comments about Nikki Haley, it seemed to only be a matter of time. The recent article in Variety Magazine that listed his long history of misdeeds behind the scenes showed that he had no goodwill in the bank and that people were eager to air dirty laundry.
Finally, word came down yesterday that ABC is parting ways with Nate Silver as part of their newest wave of layoffs. It sounds like ABC will still hold the rights to the Five Thirty Eight brand and keep on some of the staff, but this is still a big deal. Silver’s rep has taken a big hit in recent years; his Twitter presence really suffers when he steps out of his lane. He is an exceptional data analyst, and is a very valuable source when it comes to analyzing polls. He and his team know which ones are reliable and which are not which helps to regain perspective when outlier polls come out that create a frenzy. But once he starts to analyze actual policy he becomes a font of senseless hot takes. I’ll be interested to see what his next step is; despite the fact that he turned himself into such a whipping boy, he still provides a valuable service.
A Tale Of 2 Broadcasters
No disrespect to some of the other outstanding broadcasters out there, but I’m confident in calling David Cone the premiere baseball analyst working right now. In stark contrast with someone whom I will not name (John Smoltz) he demonstrates a clear love for the game along with a constant willingness to learn. Unlike most of his peers he has an open mind when it comes to the application of advanced statistics and more importantly he is able to seamlessly incorporate that info into his analysis in an entertaining and informative way.
And I loved his Mr. Wizard demonstration in last Sunday’s game. With Max Scherzer’s suspension in the news, he showed how the combination of rosin and rubbing alcohol makes one’s fingers especially sticky. He also brought up the possibility that the league was targeting Scherzer specifically. He implied that MLB had interest in suspending a major star to let everyone know that no one is above the law. Eduardo Perez was attempting to goad Cone a bit further with this line of thinking. He didn’t want to sound full conspiracy theorist, but it’s worth noting that Scherzer was one of the union leaders in the last CBA negotiation. If the league wanted to make an example out of someone, connect the dots, etc.
OK, I lied about not talking about Smoltz, who is the result of what happens when a car with a “I’d rather be golfing” bumper sticker turns into a real boy. He appeared on a podcast a few weeks ago in which he dismissively responded to his many critics with a “what do they know, they never played the game” response. His palpable disdain for the sport which he is supposedly promoting is crystal clear and makes him fair game for criticism, no matter the background of his critics. I’m only half joking when I say that if I would ever find myself in the position of hiring a broadcast crew my first question would be “Do you even like this sport?” Smoltz would fail that question.
RIP Harry Belafonte
Simply put, Harry Belafonte was one of the most substantive public figures of our lifetime. Singer, actor, producer, and most crucially, activist/humanitarian; his importance cannot be overstated. He was elected to the Rock & Roll Hall last year as an Early Influence and you would have to go way down through his list of accomplishments and achievements before that honor pops up. As far as I can recall, neither he nor his family made any sort of public comment following his election. I can picture him receiving his trophy, shrugging, and placing it in a closet along with his other assorted awards.
He was instrumental in introducing Caribbean musical styles to mainstream America. Banana Boat Song is so firmly embedded into our culture that it’s become one of those songs that everyone knows, regardless of their generation. That run of success recording calypso music, although it was his most commercially successful, only made up a small portion of his recorded output. His catalogue spanned a multitude of genres; filled with jazz, R&B, folk, gospel and much more.
It’s with his social activity that he really made his mark in history. He was a vital figure in the civil rights movement, helping to organize the March On Washington, and acting as one of the most prominent participants in the Selma march. His constant television presence was just as important, particularly during an era when black faces were seldom seen on the small screen. The fact that Petula Clark briefly touching his arm as they sang a duet became a controversial moment seems unimaginable now, but it was a huge deal back then.
Advanced age barely slowed him down. He continued to work tirelessly to better people’s lives right up until the end. He was one of the true giants in our midst. Rest in power.
A Real Dark Horse GOAT Candidate
The Athletic recently released the results of an NBA player’s survey that they have been conducting over the course of the season. The results provide some interesting insight, but one topic in particular caught my eye. They were asked to name their choice for the greatest player of all time, to which 103 players responded. The top two selections were fairly obvious and self-explanatory. Michael Jordan was the choice of 58.3% of the respondents, LeBron James placed second with 33% of the vote.
Kobe Bryant came in third at 6.8%. Now, he was obviously an all-time great, at the very least a top 15 guy, maybe even top 10. Keep in mind that a contemporary player would have come of age during Kobe’s peak, so it stands to reason that he would have made more of an impact for a guy in his twenties than, say, Kareem would. I don’t agree with that high of a placement, but neither can I argue against it. Two other players received 1 vote each. One of those went to Bill Russell; much respect to whoever it was that voted for a man who retired well before the voter was even born. The other who nabbed a sole vote? Tracy McGrady. Tracy McGrady? Yes, Tracy McGrady. I’d really love to know who that voter was. I mean, McGrady was an outstanding player but calling him a GOAT is a huuuuuuuge stretch. I have to believe that vote came from someone who couldn’t decide between MJ & LeBron, so he chose to playfully troll instead.
Say Good Night, Gracie
Enjoy your day, everyone & thanks for reading. What a week so far, huh? Who knows what will happen between now and Friday. Talk to all then.