2024 MLB Preview
The Power Rankings
Last week in Seoul we learned that contrary to popular belief the Dodgers will NOT finish with a record of 162-0. Now it’s time for the other 28 clubs to get serious. Opening Day is today. Time to polish up the crystal ball and put together my power rankings.
Once again, I will not take it all the way and make a World Series prediction. With such a huge postseason field, the playoffs are as much of a crapshoot as ever. The team holding up Rob Manfred’s piece of metal isn’t necessarily the best team, it’s the one that is playing the best at the correct time. Just as crucially, it’s the team that still has enough starting pitchers left standing in October; look no further than last year’s Dodgers.
Each season offers its share of surprises, so some of my rankings are a bit bold. Am I predicting that both of last year’s World Series participants will fall short of the postseason in 2024? Why, yes I am. Will any of these choices make me look foolish at the end of the season? Of course not, I’ll simply blame any poor prediction on my account having been hacked. Also, keep in mind that these selections are only a snapshot in time. By mid May rosters will look considerably different than they do now, never mind what they will look like in August. Plus, there is a huge soft middle in the standings. All it would take is a significant injury for a key player on one of those teams to cause a massive plunge downward.
So, without further ado, let the countdown commence:
Rockies. They’re not just a bad team, they’re a dull one. At least in the crazy Blake Street Bombers days, you could count on all those train wreck 11-9 scores. Now, this is a team with no identity. Nolan Jones had a promising rookie season, but overall this is a team that can be easily ignored.
Nationals. Flags may fly forever, but boy have there been some dreary times since 2019. The game of chicken the franchise is playing with Stephen Strasburg is uncalled for; looks like this is bringing poor karma to the Nats. C.J. Abrams is showing good potential, but we’re a long way away from seeing the next good Nationals team.
Athletics. They’re not the worst team in the league this year, so… progress I guess? It would be hard to top the embarrassment of last year; here’s hoping they removed the fauna from the press box. Assuming that this is fact their final year in Oakland, it’s going to be a depressing way to go out. At least it doesn’t figure to be an embarrassingly inept season.
White Sox. The only positive is that the franchise has finally faced facts and is going with a reboot. Hopefully the rebuild doesn’t take so long that it wastes the prime years of Luis Robert Jr.’s career. There are a lot of guys in this lineup who are facing now-or-never career crossroads; Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada. I suppose the possibility of some of these names catching fire could produce a surprising result in a weak division, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Royals. Give them credit for making a long term commitment to Bobby Witt Jr. He’s exactly the sort of young star one would want to build a team around. But there are still way too many holes in that lineup. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were low key valuable free agent signings; solid veterans who will give them solid innings. Runs will be difficult to come by, however.
Angels. Would they consider signing Tungsten Arm O’Doyle? As some of you may have noticed, Shohei Ohtani is no longer with this team. They were a bad team even with him; how in the world are they going to be able to replace him? The hope is that a healthy Mike Trout will improve things somewhat. After that, what? They’re taking chances on an Anthony Rendon comeback. Not great, Bob.
Tigers. Good: The consensus is that Tarik Skubal will take the big step forward this year and establish himself as an ace starter. Bad: Javier Baez looks so done. The Tigers are still holding out hope that Spencer Torkelson can put everything together and have a big season, but he’s getting close to suspect & not prospect status. Perhaps Riley Greene can make the leap if his elbow is OK?
Pirates. I really liked the improvements that Ke’Bryan Hayes made last season; his bat is catching up to his impressive glove. If Oneil Cruz and/or Henry Davis are able to make big steps forward in their development, this could be a better than expected lineup. It’s still a franchise lacking in direction, but the potential building blocks are in place.
Padres. On one hand, so much went wrong for this team last year that you have to believe the law of averages will turn in their favor. Any team with Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup is one to be reckoned with. On the other hand, they lost Juan Soto, Blake Snell, AND Josh Hader. That’s a lot of production that needs to be replaced. I don’t see it happening.
Marlins. I can’t imagine how tough it must be to be a Marlins fan. Sure, they have 2 championships in a 7-year period, but most of their history is filled with big sell offs and drastic changes in philosophy. Last year they made a surprise run to the playoffs, although their poor run differential suggested that it was a fluke. So what happens? The GM who put the team together, Kim Ng, resigned rather than accept a demotion and ace starter Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery. Back to square one for what seems like the 20th time.
Reds. They are putting together a lineup of young players that observers are rightfully bullish about, but the pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Hunter Greene has a lively fastball, but he really needs to develop a second pitch. Elly De La Cruz has boundless raw skills, but so many holes in his game. With so much precocious talent, the Reds have extreme variance. If everyone matures, they could be much better than expected, but to me they are at least a year away.
Red Sox. They are a puzzling team; seemingly every move they make going all the way back to the Mookie Betts trade makes them look like a large revenue team pretending that it’s a small market one. Especially considering the division that they play in, there’s little to get excited about. Could Trevor Story finally have a healthy season? The Sox are the very definition of “meh.”
Guardians. They are almost as puzzling in their own way as the Red Sox are. It doesn’t take much to compete in the AL Central, yet the Guardians only take baby steps when it comes to improving the team. Which is a shame - Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, and Josh Naylor make up a nice core. They could potentially surprise with strong comeback seasons from Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber, but boy, the weak spots in the lineup are VERY weak.
Brewers. They usually find a way, and I’m looking forward to seeing Jackson Chourio, but this is a team that is taking a major step backwards this year. Corbin Burnes is gone, Brandon Woodruff will miss the season, Devin Williams will miss at least half. Those are some crucial arms whose innings will need to be replaced somehow. Christian Yelich had a bit of a bounce back last year, but he’s far from the star that he once was.
Diamondbacks. It’s good that someone finally signed Jordan Montgomery, but realistically it will be at least a month until he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. This is a solid team; there are a half dozen players who promise to be legitimate all-stars this year, but I’m getting a World Series hangover vibe from the Dbacks. I would love to see Tommy Pham’s reaction the first time he watches an Arizona game and realizes that Joc Pederson has essentially taken his job.
Mets. This is a potentially strong lineup, especially if Francisco Alvarez takes the next big step forward. No worries whatsoever about the Lindor/Alonso/Nimmo core, and J.D. Martinez was a valuable late spring pickup. But this is the starting rotation of a .500 club, especially if it takes Kodai Senga a while to come back. The Mets fan in me can see through my rose colored glasses and anticipate a playoff run if several things go right, but the realist in me sees that not every best case scenario is likely to come through.
Orioles. This is the team of the future, and their debutante ball took place last year (at least a year earlier than expected) but I believe that with a team this young a step back is as plausible as any other result. It’s the pitching that concerns me; trading for Corbin Burnes was a coup, but Kyle Bradish will miss at least the start of the season. And going from a bullpen anchored by Felix Bautista to one anchored by the 2024 version of Craig Kimbrel does not inspire much confidence. 2024 might not be the year, but a team led by Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, with Jackson Holliday only one phone call away, is one worth keeping a close eye on.
Giants. Oh look, it’s an even-numbered year. Is more Giants magic on the horizon? For the number of times that they have finished in second place in free agent bids, they did fairly well for themselves this offseason. Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler was a decent haul, and Snell & Logan Webb make for a very nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. The X-factor is Jung Hoo Lee, scouts are divided over whether or not the Giants overpaid for him. But if he works out, this will be a productive offense.
Cubs. Cody Bellinger figures to have a bit of a regression this year, but even so, this is a roster filled with players that have strong upside. I could see Nico Hoerner taking the next step, Justin Steele continuing to demonstrate the promise that he showed last year, Dansby Swanson returning to his typical level of production, and Seiya Suzuki improving greatly. Craig Counsell has been consistently successful managing in Milwaukee; let’s see what he can do leading a team with better resources.
Rangers. Yes, this means they are only the 7th best AL team, which would put them out of the playoffs. This remains a strong lineup - Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia are all star players in their peaks, and Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford could have a great battle for Rookie of the Year. But that pitching is going to be an issue. It’s well and good to think “wait until Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom come back” but there’s no guarantee how effective they will be. They are going to score a lot of runs, but they will also give up plenty.
Cardinals. Somebody’s gotta win the NL Central, why not them? This is the pick most likely to make me look foolish; the starting rotation is a bit too aged and is there a true ace there? Sonny Gray had a nice year last year, but it might be asking too much to expect him to lead a staff. I have confidence that Nolan Arenado will bounce back, and I also feel that Jordan Walker will tap his potential after the club yo-yo’d him so much last year. But there’s also the danger that Paul Goldschmidt’s decline has begun. This could very easily become a 74-win team, but there’s also a high ceiling there.
Phillies. This year’s Phils team doesn’t look much different than last year’s, but there’s nothing wrong with that. I have to believe that the Trea Turner we saw in the second half of the year is the real one, and with a full offseason of not having to worry about rehabbing an injury Bryce Harper should have a huge year. J.T. Realmuto is starting to trend in the wrong direction, and it’s likely that Aaron Nola’s best years are behind him as well. They have to hope that at least one supporting player steps up in a big way.
Mariners. I love this starting rotation; Luis Castillo is an established ace, George Kirby is a dark horse Cy Young candidate, and Logan Gilbert is an outstanding #3. Plus, Julio Rodriguez is on the verge of being a top 5 player. They could use at least one more hitter to improve enough to make this a formidable lineup, could it be Cal Raleigh? Or J.P. Crawford?
Yankees. I don’t envy opposing pitchers that will need to face Aaron Judge and Juan Soto back to back. I’m also fairly certain that Anthony Volpe will make the leap. The problem is that this is a very top heavy team. We have seen over and over again that titles are not won with players 1-8; they’re won with 1-26. There are veterans in this lineup with good track records, but they also have poor injury histories. And regardless of how long Gerrit Cole’s absence will be, the fact remains that his loss is irreplaceable. Without Cole that’s a rotation that doesn’t intimidate opposing teams.
Rays. Eventually the smoke and mirrors they use every year will stop working. So what if they traded Tyler Glasnow, or if Shane McClanahan is injured, somehow someone will take their places and have a big year. I don’t how they continue to do it, but somehow their system works. The Randy Arozarena/Yandy Diaz/Isaac Paredes-led lineup is a good one. I’ve learned my lesson, never underestimate this team. Life finds a way.
Blue Jays. This is another team with an above-average starting rotation that will help them go places. They have players coming off of disappointing seasons whom I have confidence in their comeback abilities. If either Alejandro Kirk or Alec Manoah return to form, or if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can return to the stardom level he showed a few years ago then this team can match up with anyone.
Twins. I’m going out on a limb here, but this is a team that has a much higher ceiling than a lot of people think. Pablo Lopez could be a strong Cy Young candidate. I’d love to see what Royce Lewis could do in a fully healthy season. I have to believe that Carlos Correa will come back strong. And is too optimistic to hope for Byron Buxton to finally remain healthy? Keep an eye on Edouard Julien. I really liked what I saw of him last year.
Astros. Still here, and still dangerous. Josh Hader’s addition will further shorten games; with Ryan Pressly now pitching the 8th that makes for a formidable end of game combo. The rest of the familiar faces are still there. I’d like to see at least one of the starting pitchers move up to the next level; Framber Valdez is very good, but I would place him just shy of ace level. No concerns with the lineup. Yordan Alvarez can mash; Kyle Tucker isn’t very far behind.
Dodgers. The star power in this lineup is special. This team is going to score a lot of runs and put constant pressure on opposing pitchers. There are noticeable issues, however, and it’s not a matter of being nitpicky. The infield defense is subpar. I love Mookie Betts, we all love Mookie Betts. It’s admirable that he is so willing to convert to second base. Asking him to switch to shortstop is probably asking too much. Plus, don’t forget what killed them in last year’s playoffs; the rotation was hanging by a thread in October. Things don’t look much better right now. Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler will start the season on the IL; it’s tough to have much confidence until we actually see them pitch. Still, let’s not overthink this. A top 4 of Betts/Ohtani/Freeman/Smith is a must watch, and there’s no reason to get too carried away over Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s poor first start. He’ll be OK.
Braves. Ronald Acuna Jr. gave everyone an injury scare earlier in spring training, but all appears well, and he should be the best overall player in the game this year. The reason why they have earned the #1 spot is simple; it’s a star-studded lineup with a pitching staff nearly as strong. Albies, Olson, Riley, Harris, Murphy, etc. There’s little opportunity for opposing pitchers to take a breath. Spencer Strider is a stud at the top of the rotation, the hope & expectation is that Max Fried will come back strong to fill that #2 slot, and if Chris Sale can somehow make more than 20 starts? Look out.
So, to quickly summarize:
NL East - Braves
NL Central - Cardinals
NL West - Dodgers
NL Wild Cards - Phillies, Cubs, Giants
AL East - Blue Jays
AL Central - Twins
AL West - Astros
AL Wild Cards - Rays, Yankees, Mariners
As I write this, rain has already preemptively postponed home openers in New York & Philadelphia; hope that’s not a harbinger of the season. As for everyone else - Play Ball!
Closing Laughs
I’m sure every single one of these rankings will look good whence October rolls around. In the meantime, sit back. We got ourselves 162 games to look forward to. Thanks for reading, and see you again tomorrow for our regularly scheduled programming.